Where the Single Call Stops
A preregistered comparison of an agent against three baselines on a benchmark with ground truth by construction: the registration frozen before the measurement world was drawn, paired bootstrap intervals over scenarios, every claim graded by an evaluator that never re-reads a vendor, the stopped calls recorded call by call, and a report whose tables and figures are built from the committed results.
The investigator is an LLM agent that reads an organization’s HR system, issue tracker, calendar and documents and drafts a coverage plan for an employee’s leave, with the evidence behind each claim. The report measures whether its reading loop earns its cost against three simpler ways of producing the same plan, on an organization built so that the right answer is known.
What was found
A scenario counts as correct whole when every required claim is present and right, nothing unexpected is claimed, and no finding stands against the plan.
| System | Base | Padded |
|---|---|---|
| Investigator | 24 of 30 | 24 of 30 |
| Full context, one call | 30 of 30 | 14 of 30 |
| Single shot, one retrieval then one call | 22 of 30 | 10 of 30 |
| Rules only, no model | 10 of 30 | 10 of 30 |
The rules pass exactly the structured tier and nothing else, so twenty scenarios are where any model-reading system can differ. The investigator misses the same six at both levels.
At the padded level the single call stops at its output allowance on 24 of its 30 calls, the cap on what it may write and not on what it may read, and 15 of its 16 failures coincided with a stopped call; one did not. The registered primary comparison, the investigator against full context at the padded level, is an observed difference of 33 percentage points of scenarios with a paired interval of 20 to 47 points at 95 percent. The investigator wrote 47,806 output tokens across its thirty padded runs against full context’s 211,989, because a loop states the facts its searches returned where the one call must state everything it was shown.
Four systems, one answer key
Every system begins with the same frozen prefetch of the structured records and composes its report with the same deterministic rules; they differ only in what documents reach the model and how. Rules only reads the prefetch and no document, and calls no model. Single shot runs one fixed full-text query, then one model call that states facts from what came back. Full context puts every document of the corpus into one call. The investigator runs a tool loop, reading in turns through role-scoped tools and a full-text search over document sections, then is asked once, at the end, to state the facts it read with the words they came from. One model, Claude Haiku 4.5, played every role in every system, at temperature zero, with the same 8,192-token output maximum per call.
The organization has 28 people in five teams and thirty planted leave scenarios in three tiers: answerable from records alone, dependent on facts that live only in prose, and built around a trap. Its answer key was written before any system ran, and the comparison was registered before the measurement world existed. The evaluation ran once at two corpus levels, the base corpus and a padded one: 240 runs for $9.96 in model calls.
Where the investigator still fails
The investigator’s six misses are the same six scenarios at both levels, all in the fragmented tier, where the needed facts live only in prose. Its mechanism measure follows each needed fact through four stages: whether a document carrying it was returned to the run, whether the model emitted the fact, whether the record admitted it, and whether the rules could use it. At the padded level the stages read 31, 26, 26, 25 of 31 needed facts. Every needed carrier was returned, so retrieval is complete and the losses occur after it: five facts were returned and not emitted, and one was emitted and admitted but the rules could not use it. Six missing facts and six failed scenarios are different units, and the equal totals are a coincidence the report does not lean on.
How the result was held to account
The registration was frozen at a commit before the measurement world was drawn. It fixed each system’s call and token caps from a calibration on a development world, one run per scenario, a retry only after an infrastructure failure, and a counted attempt chosen by a rule over the run’s own log. No reported run reached its call cap or its token cap, and every run closed on its first attempt; what many one-call runs reached is the per-call output maximum. The evaluator grades a run claim by claim against the sealed key, replays its conclusions from what the run itself read, and runs under its own identity: it reads exports and never re-reads a vendor. The report’s tables, figures and result numbers are generated from the committed results by a pinned build; a few numbers about the instrument and the calibration are quoted from cited records.
What it refuses to claim
One world, one model, one run per scenario: the intervals are over scenarios of one synthetic organization of 28 people and say nothing about run-to-run variability or about another model. The padded level’s size was chosen, before the measurement world existed, so that the single call would fail on a development world; the padded result is a finding about that regime. The single call’s stop is output saturation under the 8,192-token allowance every system ran with, a mechanism the exports record call by call; it is not evidence of an input-context limit, and the report makes no claim that the model could not read the padded request. The two kinds of system were not tuned alike, and a reader who suspects the one-call readers could be prompted past their stop is entitled to; the evaluation did not try. The prose the systems read is near-template, because a text enters the world only when a second model can extract exactly its planted facts, so the results test reading what is stated and say nothing about inference. Four outage cells were registered and decided not run, and four supporting comparisons registered and decided not built, before any result was seen. The organization is synthetic and small; it is not a study of any real workforce.